Politics @ Southampton

Jonathan HavercroftBy Jonathan Havercroft, Senior Lecturer in International Political Theory at the University of Southampton (Academia.eduGoogle Scholar). You can read more posts by Jonathan here.

Word this week that the yes side in the Scottish independence referendum has closed the gap and perhaps even take a small lead (at least according to one poll) has caught the political establishment in the UK off guard. The conventional wisdom for most of the past year has been that the no side in the referendum should win quite handily. And I have to confess that the political scientist in me read the polls the same way. To anyone who asked me for my opinion over the summer months I confidently predicted a victory for the no side. The problem with polling and conventional wisdom for events such as this is that independence referendums are so rare that we…

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